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The Sun Has Won

Research Note: China Solar PV Installation Trends And Implications

Summary: China dominates global solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing and domestic installation. China by itself installed an estimated 265 GW of PV, or 60% of the global total, in 2023. China's domestic installation is such a large fraction of the global market that changes in domestic demand may have increasingly important global consequences. Moreover, any uncertainty in China's domestic financing of manufacturing, or in government policy that influences manufacturing, could affect module availability worldwide. A contraction of domestic Chinese installation could result in a global glut of modules, and a contraction of Chinese manufacturing could result in tightening supplies, with either event influencing global prices. One ameliorating factor to emerge in the wake of the pandemic and war in Europe is the apparent rise of the warehousing of modules, which can buffer fluctuations in both supply and demand. Given China's present dominance in all phases of module manufacturing, I estimate it will be 5-10 years before domestic investment in new manufacturing in other countries will modulate China's impact on global supply and prices, a topic that I will cover in an upcoming report. This Research Note updates reporting on China from The Sun Has Won, Part 1.